Development Economist at the Centre for Social Policy Studies of the University of Ghana, Dr George Domfeh, has praised the accuracy of predictions released by APL ahead of the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) National Chairman election.
According to Dr Domfeh, the projections were remarkably close to the actual results announced after the party’s National Delegates Conference in Kumasi.
In a post commenting on the outcome of the contest, Dr Domfeh compared APL’s projected vote shares for the four candidates with their actual performance in the election.
He said the figures showed that APL had come closest in predicting the eventual outcome of the closely contested race.
Former NPP General Secretary John Boadu emerged victorious in the chairman election, securing 2,888 votes, representing 47.19% of the total valid votes cast.
APL had earlier projected that Mr Boadu would obtain 47.3%, placing the prediction just a fraction of a percentage point above his actual performance.
Dr Domfeh noted that the prediction for former Energy Minister Boakye Agyarko was similarly close.
Mr Agyarko secured 39.35% of the votes, while APL had projected 39.00%.
Former NPP National Chairman Paul Afoko was also projected to secure 12.5% of the vote. He eventually obtained 12.9%, according to the figures cited by Dr Domfeh.
For former NPP First Vice Chairman Sammy Crabbe, APL had projected 1.20%, while his actual share of the vote stood at 0.67%.
Dr Domfeh described the projections as the closest to the actual outcome of the chairman contest, highlighting the narrow margins between the predicted and final vote shares for the leading candidates.
The NPP National Delegates Conference was held at the Baba Yara Sports Stadium in Kumasi on Saturday, October 3, 2026, where delegates also voted to elect other national officers and considered proposed constitutional amendments.
Mr Boadu’s victory puts him at the centre of the party’s efforts to reorganise its structures and position itself for future electoral contests.
His closest challenger, Mr Agyarko, also performed strongly, accounting for more than 39% of the vote, while Mr Afoko and Mr Crabbe trailed behind.
Dr Domfeh’s assessment therefore places particular emphasis on the predictive accuracy of APL’s figures, especially in relation to the two leading candidates, whose projected and actual vote shares differed by less than one percentage point.
By 1960news.com
